Summary:
In 2024, the global agricultural product market confronted numerous challenges
and uncertainties, with notable price fluctuations and pressures on supply,
demand, and trade. Against this backdrop, the China
Amino Acids market also underwent substantial
transformations. There was a marked increase in capacity, a surge in the number
of enterprises, and heightened competition, particularly in the realm of minor
amino acids. Meanwhile, export demand soared, but downstream domestic demand
weakened, with feed production declining year-on-year for the first time in a
decade. This article will provide an in-depth analysis of the supply and demand
situation, profitability, export trends, and future prospects of the amino acids in China market
in 2024.
Rapid Capacity Growth and Intensifying Competition Among
Enterprises
As of November 2024, China's total amino acid capacity had reached 7.25 million
tons, marking an increase of approximately 10%. Among them, lysine and
threonine dominate, with Heilongjiang, Jilin, Inner Mongolia, and Shandong
serving as the primary production areas. Lysine capacity accounts for over 80%
of the global total; threonine accounts for 94.04%; and methionine capacity has
also grown significantly, representing 34.75% of the global total. Furthermore,
minor amino acid capacity increased by 133%, with demand growing by 100%,
leading to increasingly fierce market competition.
Improved Profitability,
with Some Varieties Standing Out
Due to the decline in raw material corn prices, the cost pressure on amino acid
producers eased, as per CCM market insights.
Throughout the year, methionine prices fluctuated between RMB 19,500 and RMB
22,000 per ton, resulting in robust profitability. 70% lysine prices
stabilized, with profits increasing by approximately 100% year-on-year.
Threonine prices fell initially but then rebounded, leading to good
profitability with theoretical profits increasing by approximately 200%
year-on-year. Notably, 98% lysine profitability was exceptional, with prices
strengthening and theoretical profits surging by approximately 300%
year-on-year.
Surge in Export Demand, with Anti-Dumping Fueling
Overbuying in the EU
China's amino acid exports have increased annually, accounting
for about 60% of production. From January to September 2024, the total exports
of 98% lysine, threonine, and methionine increased by 17.20%, 31.09%, and 102%
respectively. Anti-dumping incidents have fueled overbuying of lysine in the EU
market, driving high production and high prices in the domestic lysine and
threonine markets. The substantial increase in methionine exports has
alleviated domestic supply pressure.
Declining Domestic Demand and Falling Feed Production
Affected by the downturn in the feed industry, feed production
fell by 4.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, marking the first decline
in a decade. The primary decline stemmed from pig feed and egg and poultry
feed, due to adjustments in sow and pig inventories and the need for cost
reduction in farming. Demand for meat poultry feed was stable with some growth,
but the overall increase was limited.
Falling Feed Raw Material
Costs and Decreasing Amino Acid Inventory
In 2024, corn and soybean meal prices weakened, resulting in a
decrease in feed costs. In the first three quarters, the average index of feed
raw material costs fell by 17.99% year-on-year. The number of days of amino
acid inventory held by downstream enterprises decreased by over 20%
year-on-year, reflecting the reduction in domestic amino acid demand and cautious
purchasing attitudes downstream.
Outlook for the Amino Acid Market: High Prices at the End of
2024 and Continued Capacity Expansion
Looking ahead from the end of 2024 to 2025, the lysine and threonine markets
are expected to maintain firm pricing, driven by strong export demand, with
prices potentially concluding at high levels. However, there are risks of
turning points due to multiple factors. The methionine market faces a situation
of increasing supply and decreasing demand, with prices potentially weakening
initially before stabilizing. In the field of minor amino acids, opportunities
for price increases are anticipated for valine and other amino acids, while
arginine and isoleucine may continue to experience weak and stable
fluctuations. Additionally, China's amino acid market is projected to have at
least 2.33 million tons of new capacity in 2025, with capacity growth
potentially reaching 32%, further intensifying market competition. In this
context, the market will embrace a new era of coexisting long-term challenges
and phased opportunities. Enterprises need to closely monitor domestic and
international demand dynamics and changes in China-EU and China-US trade
policies to flexibly address challenges and seize development opportunities,
according to CCM market intelligence and CCM analysis.
In summary, amid global agricultural product market fluctuations
in 2024, the domestic China Amino Acids market underwent
remarkable changes. In the future, enterprises need to closely monitor market
dynamics, optimize production structures, and enhance competitiveness to cope
with increasingly fierce market competition, leveraging insights from CCM reports and CCM research.
About CCM:
CCM is the leading market intelligence provider for China’s agriculture, chemicals, food & feed and life science markets. Founded in 2001, CCM offers a range of content solutions, from price and trade analysis to industry newsletters and customized market research reports. CCM is a brand of Kcomber Inc.
For more information about CCM, please visit www.cnchemicals.com or get in touch with us directly by emailing econtact@cnchemicals.com or calling +86-20-37616606.